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The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
Including 2021, eight Atlantic hurricane seasons since 2010 have had at least one storm form before the June 1 start date. The last season without any preseason tropical development was 2014.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 21 named storms, and the sixth consecutive year in which there was above-average tropical cyclone activity [nb 1] [2] The season officially began on June 1, 2021, and ended on November 30, 2021.
The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR), [9] was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989. It was based on a simplified set of atmospheric dynamical equations (the equivalent ...
Federal forecasters at NOAA had predicted it would be an above-average season. There were 21 named storms ranging from Ana to Wanda. It was the third most active year on record based on named ...
Also, points for days 6 and 7 for existing tropical cyclones east of 140W longitude, [10] and days 3–7 to possible future tropical cyclones, are coordinated between the medium range pressures desk and NHC each day at 1700 UTC during the hurricane season. This coordination call began between the Extended Forecast Section and the Miami ...
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