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The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR), [9] was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989. It was based on a simplified set of atmospheric dynamical equations (the equivalent ...
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 21 named storms, and the sixth consecutive year in which there was above-average tropical cyclone activity [nb 1] [2] The season officially began on June 1, 2021, and ended on November 30, 2021.
This image shows the morning GEFS ensemble, which includes multiple runs of the American GFS computer model, for invest 98 on September 21, 2022. The black line in the center is the ensemble mean ...
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The HWRF computer model is the operational backbone for hurricane track and intensity forecasts by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). [2] The model will use data from satellite observations, buoys, and reconnaissance aircraft, making it able to access more meteorological data than any other hurricane model before it. [2] The model will ...
In its 1 a.m. update, the hurricane center said Rafael was 115 miles west-northwest of Havana. The storm's maximum sustained winds had diminished to 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.