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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. ... President betting odds from Smarkets, 538 ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Illinois shifted towards Trump, Harris winning the state by a 10.9% margin, six points down from Biden. The state’s red shift was caused by low Democratic turnout in Cook County , home to Chicago with Harris receiving about 300,000 fewer votes than Biden in Cook County, while Trump ran marginally ahead of his 2020 raw vote total in Chicago ...
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Here’s what the latest polls say about the 2024 presidential election, from The Independent’s data correspondent
In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93] Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency , and at worst as being "buggy".