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Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store on Tuesday evening.
The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Trump's odds of winning are at 66% there based on bets. National polls generally show the race tied.
Share prices or “odds” rise and fall depending on demand. So if the event happens the way the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” will rise to $1 and pay out—or fall to $0 if it does ...
Now people are betting on who will be his pick for secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and Polymarket shows Scott Bessent’s odds of securing that nomination at 67%, at the moment ...
And newspapers would say, like, ‘the Wall Street betting odds are rarely wrong.’ So there was more trust in those markets in the early 20th century than I would say people have in polls today.”
However, a late-October rally in Trump’s odds was a result of aberrant betting behavior from just 1% of Polymarket’s users, according to Bloomberg. The financial world was just as glued to the ...
Polymarket odds offer a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election, but there are significant caveats. Real-time prediction markets can react faster than polls, making them a key part of ...
The prediction market Polymarket has skyrocketed into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 U.S. elections, with the platform reporting that users have placed $2.7 billion in bets over whether ...