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For example, one might argue that it is valid to use inductive inference in the future because this type of reasoning has yielded accurate results in the past. However, this argument relies on an inductive premise itself—that past observations of induction being valid will mean that future observations of induction will also be valid.
Due to the availability heuristic, names that are more easily available are more likely to be recalled, and can thus alter judgments of probability. [31] Another example of the availability heuristic and exemplars would be seeing a shark in the ocean. Seeing a shark has a greater impact on an individual's memory than seeing a dolphin.
Failure of imagination is a phrase applied to an undesirable yet seemingly predictable circumstance—predictable particularly in hindsight—that occurs unanticipated. [ citation needed ] It is distinguishable from a " black swan event ", which by definition defies prediction.
One account stated that Clarke's laws were developed after the editor of his works in French started numbering the author's assertions. [2] All three laws appear in Clarke's essay "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination", first published in Profiles of the Future (1962); [3] however, they were not all published at the same time.
The representativeness heuristic can be a useful shortcut in some cases, but it can also lead to errors in judgment. For example, if we only see a small sample of people from a particular group, we might overestimate the degree to which they are representative of the entire group.
One week ago, the tech market went haywire -- and shook Apple (NAS: AAPL) to its core. No, I'm not talking about Steve Jobs's surprise resignation. Although that was certainly big news, it didn't ...
The Publishers Weekly: “a scientific explanation of the limitations of the human imagination and how it steers us wrong in our search for happiness, … commonplace examples render a potentially academic topic accessible and educational, even if his approach is at times overly prescriptive.” [8]
Cuban is an example of how even the richest and most famous people in the world fail. But his story shows that the right response to failure can lead to success. A disastrous 2020 might have left ...