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  2. Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still ...

    www.aol.com/trump-gained-538s-forecast-election...

    Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...

  3. The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/2024-election-could-come-down...

    Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...

  4. Who will win the presidential election? The Trump trade ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/win-presidential-election...

    Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...

  5. FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

    [538 17] [538 18] He developed a list of 2010 Senate races in which he made monthly updates of predicted party turnover. [ 538 19 ] Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage. [ 29 ]

  6. What to know about the potential $30 million whale moving ...

    www.aol.com/5-things-know-mystery-30-172117457.html

    Harris led Trump by roughly 2 percentage points in the latest polling average compiled by 538, and the candidates were separated by even thinner margins in 538's polling averages of the ...

  7. Opinion - Harris is up but Trump might be stronger behind the ...

    www.aol.com/opinion-harris-trump-might-stronger...

    Also, as he’s demonstrated repeatedly, Trump is by no means out of this race, and in fact, may actually be stronger than many predict. Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder ...

  8. ‘World’s most accurate economist’ predicts Trump victory in ...

    www.aol.com/news/world-most-accurate-economist...

    The “world’s most accurate economist” is predicting Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans are likely to take full control of Congress on Nov. 5.. Christophe Barraud, the ...

  9. Donald Trump gains the upper hand in the prediction markets ...

    www.aol.com/finance/donald-trump-gains-upper...

    Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace, currently shows Trump ahead in the presidential election by 57.7% to 41.9%. Harris, though, is projected by the same site to win the ...