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Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial mathematics concerned with determining risk premiums. [1] To achieve this, it uses mathematical models in an effort to forecast the ( expected ) number of insurance claims based on past observations.
Credibility dates back to Aristotle's theory of Rhetoric.Aristotle defines rhetoric as the ability to see what is possibly persuasive in every situation. He divided the means of persuasion into three categories, namely Ethos (the source's credibility), Pathos (the emotional or motivational appeals), and Logos (the logic used to support a claim), which he believed have the capacity to influence ...
In credibility theory, a branch of study in actuarial science, the Bühlmann model is a random effects model (or "variance components model" or hierarchical linear model) used to determine the appropriate premium for a group of insurance contracts. The model is named after Hans Bühlmann who first published a description in 1967.
Source credibility is "a term commonly used to imply a communicator's positive characteristics that affect the receiver's acceptance of a message." [1] Academic studies of this topic began in the 20th century and were given a special emphasis during World War II, when the US government sought to use propaganda to influence public opinion in support of the war effort.
In international relations, credibility is the perceived likelihood that a leader or a state follows through on threats and promises that have been made. [1] Credibility is a key component of coercion (i.e. compellence and deterrence ), as well as the functioning of military alliances . [ 2 ]
Foucault explores theory, criticism, and psychology with reference to the texts of Raymond Roussel, one of the first notable experimental writers. Foucault also gave a lecture responding to Roland Barthes' famous essay " The Death of the Author " titled " What Is an Author? " in 1969, later published in full. [ 186 ]
In a review of the credibility thesis, Delilah Griswold contended that "credibility is a powerful metric by which to understand and evaluate tenure systems. Importantly, understanding the credibility of a given institution requires analysis outside of theory and politics, analysis that is locally and temporally specific and multilayered."
Studies driving the credibility revolution have made use of better quality data, and also econometric techniques such as difference in differences, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, natural experiments, and even, when funding and opportunity permit, true randomized experiments. These techniques have made it possible (in ...