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An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).
A Technology Readiness Level Calculator was developed by the United States Air Force. [6] This tool is a standard set of questions implemented in Microsoft Excel that produces a graphical display of the TRLs achieved. This tool is intended to provide a snapshot of technology maturity at a given point in time. [7]
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Moore (1995) expected that "the rate of technological progress is going to be controlled from financial realities". [129] The reverse could and did occur around the late-1990s, however, with economists reporting that "Productivity growth is the key economic indicator of innovation."
The development of an explicit technology gap model started with Ponser. The key for the theory is the rate of diffusion of technology. Moving on to 1966, Vernon further extended the technology gap model into the product life-cycle theory. [2] The degree of maturity of the technology became the new key of the dynamic economic trade.
The AK model, which is the simplest endogenous model, gives a constant-savings rate of endogenous growth and assumes a constant, exogenous, saving rate. It models technological progress with a single parameter (usually A). The model is based on the assumption that the production function does not exhibit diminishing returns to scale.
The Y-axis of the diagram shows the business gain to the proprietor of the technology while the X-axis traces its lifetime. The technology life cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life". Some technologies, such as steel, paper or ...
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