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The most important insight of the model is that adjustment lags in some parts of the economy can induce compensating volatility in others; specifically, when an exogenous variable changes, the short-term effect on the exchange rate can be greater than the long-run effect, so in the short term, the exchange rate overshoots its new equilibrium ...
Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) identified the purchasing power and exchange rate disconnect puzzle as one of the six major puzzles in international economics. [4] These were the consumption correlation puzzle, home bias in trade puzzle, the equity home bias puzzle, the Feldstein-Horioka savings-investment correlations puzzle, and the exchange rate regime puzzle.
In a floating exchange rate system, a currency's value goes up (or down) if the demand for it goes up more (or less) than the supply does. In the short run this can happen unpredictably for a variety of reasons, including the balance of trade, speculation, or other factors in the international capital market. For example, a surge in purchases ...
Here’s how exchange rates are determined: Supply and demand in the global foreign exchange market—where traders buy and sell currencies based on several economic factors—decide exchange ...
2. Interest rates. Interest rates play a major role in a currency’s value and are an essential part of a country’s monetary policy. Governments often adjust interest rates to manage inflation ...
In terms of the diagram above (Oxelheim, 1990), the options are: Option (a): A stable exchange rate and free capital flows (but not an independent monetary policy because setting a domestic interest rate that is different from the world interest rate would undermine a stable exchange rate due to appreciation or depreciation pressure on the domestic currency).
The main idea is that large exchange rate volatility may lead to inflation volatility, which reduces the credibility of monetary policymakers for inflation targeting. This high inflation volatility is very costly due to higher risk premia, hedging costs and unforeseen redistribution of wealth .
Government Debt, Inflation & 7 Other Reasons Exchange Rates Change An exchange rate is how much of a given nation’s currency you can buy with a different nation’s currency.