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Scenario planning is as much art as science, and prone to a variety of traps (both in process and content) as enumerated by Paul J. H. Schoemaker. [14] More recently scenario planning has been discussed as a tool to improve the strategic agility, by cognitively preparing not only multiple scenarios but also multiple consistent strategies. [10]
Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in the Futurology. Government planners, corporate strategists and military analysts use them in order to aid decision-making. The term scenario was introduced into planning and decision-making by Herman Kahn in connection with military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s.
Instead, scenario planning is a technique in which multiple outcomes can be developed, their implications assessed, and their likeliness of occurrence evaluated. According to Pierre Wack, scenario planning is about insight, complexity, and subtlety, not about formal analysis and numbers. [62]
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A decision rule is the GDSS protocol a group uses to choose among scenario planning alternatives. Gathering Involves all participants acknowledging each other's needs and opinions and tends towards a problem solving approach in which as many needs and opinions as possible can be satisfied.
For strategic planning to work, it needs to include some formality (i.e., including an analysis of the internal and external environment and the stipulation of strategies, goals and plans based on these analyses), comprehensiveness (i.e., producing many strategic options before selecting the course to follow) and careful stakeholder management ...
Whipsawing policies, tariffs, and what else business could expect from a second Trump presidency. Business leaders have already begun scenario planning for a Trump win. 3 clear themes have emerged ...
This will include planning-centric software and the tools to support strategic and tactical planning for and across the enterprise, such as: strategy formation and scenario planning software (for example, supporting Sales and operations planning process) performance measurement and evaluation software; project management software