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Top: Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of Hurricane Rita tracks. Bottom: The spread of National Hurricane Center multi-model ensemble forecast. Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced.
It comprises a spectral atmospheric model with a terrain-following vertical coordinate system coupled to a 4D-Var data assimilation system.In 1997 the IFS became the first operational forecasting system to use 4D-Var. [2] Both ECMWF and Météo-France use the IFS to make operational weather forecasts, but using a different configuration and resolution (the Météo-France configuration is ...
ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. [11] Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in ...
The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
The HARMONIE forecast system is the main operational weather forecast system at HIRLAM weather services with a typical grid resolution of 2.5 km. Through collaboration with the ALADIN consortium, a 52-ensemble Pan-European Grand Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (GLAMEPS) has been developed by the HIRLAM programme.
Most of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, such as the GFS, which produce output about four hours after the synoptic times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 Universal Coordinated Time (UTC). For half of their forecasts, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models ...
AccuWeather's Europe summer forecast highlights the zone from northern France to Germany, Poland and into the Balkan states as the most likely corridor to face more frequent bouts of precipitation ...
Weather map of Europe, December 10, 1887 ... Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, ... Huawei's Pangu-Weather model