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Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less accurate than in the 2016 election, and possibly more inaccurate than in any election since 1996. [1]
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls were declared candidates or received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
This year’s presidential race a was high-stakes proposition for pollsters following their misfires in 2016 and 2020.They collectively anticipated a close race this time — projections that ...
Polls did a better job estimating the popular vote in 2016 than in 2020. Polls took more heat in 2016 because they misfired at the state level, overestimating Clinton's advantage by around 5 ...
In a 2023 examination of hundreds of U.S. election polls dating back to 1998, FiveThirtyEight senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich found that pollsters accurately predicted the winner only 78 ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Democratic Donald Trump Republican Other/ Undecided [a] Margin 270 to Win [147] October 17–27, 2020 November 3, 2020 61.7%: 32.3% 6.0% Biden +29.4: Real Clear Politics [148] September 26 – October 21, 2020 October 27, 2020 60.7%: 31.0% 8.3% Biden +29.7: FiveThirtyEight ...
Former Vice President Joe Biden had been leading in most national polls, but President Donald Trump believed that the polls would underestimate him again. Although the polls had underestimated Trump's strength nationally and in Ohio, Florida, and Iowa, Biden won back the blue Midwestern states and made inroads in the Sun Belt to win the election.