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Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
It is thus an arithmetic average of the absolute errors | | = | |, where is the prediction and the true value. Alternative formulations may include relative frequencies as weight factors. Alternative formulations may include relative frequencies as weight factors.
It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3] Effectively, this overcomes the 'infinite error' issue. [4]
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Michael Fish - A few hours before the Great Storm of 1987 broke, on 15 October 1987, he said during a forecast: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way.
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Excel maintains 15 figures in its numbers, but they are not always accurate; mathematically, the bottom line should be the same as the top line, in 'fp-math' the step '1 + 1/9000' leads to a rounding up as the first bit of the 14 bit tail '10111000110010' of the mantissa falling off the table when adding 1 is a '1', this up-rounding is not undone when subtracting the 1 again, since there is no ...
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