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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Hindsight bias may lead to overconfidence and malpractice in regards to physicians. Hindsight bias and overconfidence is often attributed to the number of years of experience the physician has. After a procedure, physicians may have a "knew it the whole time" attitude, when in reality they may not have known it.
Victory disease occurs in military history when complacency or arrogance, brought on by a victory or a series of victories, makes an engagement end disastrously for a commander and his forces. [1] A commander may disdain the enemy, and believe his own invincibility, leading his troops to disaster.
The United States is arguably, with all its flaws, the longest enduring democratic society in human history. But this history may end because we do not adequately teach our children the challenges ...
Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably think it doesn't affect you. That's the tricky thing with overconfidence: The people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely ...
Hubris (/ ˈ h juː b r ɪ s /; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage'), or less frequently hybris (/ ˈ h aɪ b r ɪ s /), [1] describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride [2] or dangerous overconfidence and complacency, [3] often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogance. [4]
You may find overconfidence in others or yourself to be a trait that's harmless, perhaps charming, or even annoying. You likely find it more compelling in an adviser than prudent caution. But that ...
Dirsus notes Ceaușescu's overconfidence, writing that he failed to prepare for the possibility of his downfall, making his escape impossible once the situation turned against him. [ 5 ] Drawing on Erica Chenoweth 's "3.5% rule," the author asserts that mass protests involving just 3.5% of the population can be enough to topple a regime. [ 1 ]