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The TED spread was an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy, [3] since T-bills are considered risk-free while LIBOR reflected the credit risk of lending to commercial banks. An increase in the TED spread was a sign that lenders believe the risk of default on interbank loans (also known as counterparty risk) is increasing ...
Other indicators: the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus; the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX); the Merrill Lynch Bond Market Volatility Index (1-month); the 10-year nominal Treasury yield minus 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield (10-year breakeven inflation rate); the S&P 500 ...
The spread between the two rates is considered to be a measure of health of the banking system. [2] It is an important measure of risk and liquidity in the money market, [3] considered by many, including former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, to be a strong indicator for the relative stress in the money markets. [4]
The inverted yield curve indicator, which occurs when the yield on three-month Treasury bills exceeds the yield on 10-year notes, is a perfect 8-for-8 in preceding every recession since World War II.
The TED spread, an indicator of perceived credit risk in the financial system, increased significantly during the crisis. It spiked sharply in August 2007, remained volatile for a year, and spiked even higher in September 2008 to reach a record 4.65% on October 10, 2008.
Separately, an ISM survey showed services activity for December stood in expansion territory at 54.1, compared with expectations of 53.3. The index also ticked higher from the previous month's figure.
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