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The ambiguity effect is a cognitive tendency where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". [1] The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown.
Ambiguous temporal precedence [ edit ] When it is not known which variable changed first, it can be difficult to determine which variable is the cause and which is the effect.
Statistics, when used in a misleading fashion, can trick the casual observer into believing something other than what the data shows. That is, a misuse of statistics occurs when a statistical argument asserts a falsehood. In some cases, the misuse may be accidental. In others, it is purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator.
Ambiguity is the type of meaning in which a phrase, statement, or resolution is not explicitly defined, making for several interpretations; others describe it as a concept or statement that has no real reference.
Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias, myside bias [a] or congeniality bias [2]) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. [3]
In decision theory and economics, ambiguity aversion (also known as uncertainty aversion) is a preference for known risks over unknown risks.An ambiguity-averse individual would rather choose an alternative where the probability distribution of the outcomes is known over one where the probabilities are unknown.
In Words of Estimative Probability, Kent distinguished between "poets" (those preferring wordy probabilistic statements) from "mathematicians" (those preferring quantitative odds). To bridge the gap between them and decision makers, Kent developed a paradigm relating estimative terms to odds.
Gardner initially gave the answers 1 / 2 and 1 / 3 , respectively, but later acknowledged that the second question was ambiguous. [1] Its answer could be 1 / 2 , depending on the procedure by which the information "at least one of them is a boy" was obtained.