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As of 2021 the remaining carbon budget for a 50-50 chance of staying below 1.5 degrees of warming is 460 bn tonnes of CO 2 or 11 + 1 ⁄ 2 years at 2020 emission rates. [14] Global average greenhouse gas per person per year in the late 2010s was about 7 tonnes [15] – including 0.7 tonnes CO 2 eq food, 1.1 tonnes from the home, and 0.8 tonnes from transport. [16]
Because of the short atmospheric lifetime of black carbon, in 2002 Jacobson concluded that controlling soot is the fastest way to begin to control global warming and that it will likewise improve human health. [57] However, he cautioned that controlling carbon dioxide, the leading cause of global warming, was imperative for stopping warming.
CO 2 content changes the effective T, but instead one may treat T to be a typical ground or lower-atmosphere temperature (same as T 0 or close to it) and consider CO 2 content as changing the emissivity ε. We thus re-interpret ε in the above equation as an effective emissivity that includes the CO 2 effect;, and take T=T 0.
Solar radiation modification (SRM) (or solar radiation management or sunlight reflection methods [1] or solar geoengineering), is a group of large-scale approaches to limit global warming by increasing the amount of sunlight (solar radiation) that is reflected away from Earth and back to space.
On the demand side, limiting food waste is an effective way to reduce food emissions. Changes to a diet less reliant on animal products such as plant-based diets are also effective. [10]: XXV With 21% of global methane emissions, cattle are a major driver of global warming.
The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the ...
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario, or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario. [89]
Hansen concluded that global warming would be evident within the next few decades, and that it would result in temperatures at least as high as during the Eemian. He argued that if the temperature rose 0.4 °C above the 1950–1980 mean for a few years, it would be the "smoking gun" pointing to human-caused global warming. [54]