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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [3]
Allan Lichtman told USA TODAY his 2024 election prediction set off an "avalanche." ... except for the race in 2000. He uses a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic ...
Allan Lichtman's prediction on whether Trump or Harris will win the 2024 presidential election based on his 13 keys ... except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated ...
More: Historian's final prediction is for Kamala Harris to win 2024 presidential election Prediction records Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent ...
On September 5, 2024, Lichtman predicted that Harris would win the election. [55] On November 6, 2024, contrary to Lichtman's prediction, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. [8] This was the first time Lichtman inaccurately predicted both the popular vote and the Electoral College outcome.
The 2024 election marked the second time Lichtman, an American University professor, failed to correctly predict the winner. ... Previously he did not predict the 2000 presidential winner in which ...
Because the 2000 presidential election was so close in Florida, the federal government and state governments pushed for election reform to be prepared by the 2004 presidential election. Many of Florida's 2000 election night problems stemmed from usability and ballot design factors with voting systems, including the potentially confusing ...