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A waveform showing several ERP components, including the N100 (labeled N1) and P300 (labeled P3). The ERP is plotted with negative voltages upward, a common, but not universal, practice in ERP research. An event-related potential (ERP) is the measured brain response that is the direct result of a specific sensory, cognitive, or motor event. [1]
The P300 (P3) wave is an event-related potential (ERP) component elicited in the process of decision making. It is considered to be an endogenous potential, as its occurrence links not to the physical attributes of a stimulus, but to a person's reaction to it. More specifically, the P300 is thought to reflect processes involved in stimulus ...
Bayes methods are more cost-effective than the traditional frequentist take on marketing research and subsequent decision making. The probability can be assessed from a degree of belief before and after accounting for evidence, instead of calculating the probabilities of a certain decision by carrying out a large number of trials with each one ...
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The secretary problem demonstrates a scenario involving optimal stopping theory [1] [2] that is studied extensively in the fields of applied probability, statistics, and decision theory. It is also known as the marriage problem , the sultan's dowry problem , the fussy suitor problem , the googol game , and the best choice problem .
In this example a company should prefer product B's risk and payoffs under realistic risk preference coefficients. Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) or multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly evaluates multiple conflicting criteria in decision making (both in daily life and in settings such as business, government and medicine).
Example decision curve analysis graph with two predictors. A decision curve analysis graph is drawn by plotting threshold probability on the horizontal axis and net benefit on the vertical axis, illustrating the trade-offs between benefit (true positives) and harm (false positives) as the threshold probability (preference) is varied across a range of reasonable threshold probabilities.
Risk is the lack of certainty about the outcome of making a particular choice. Statistically, the level of downside risk can be calculated as the product of the probability that harm occurs (e.g., that an accident happens) multiplied by the severity of that harm (i.e., the average amount of harm or more conservatively the maximum credible amount of harm).