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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction .
Allan Lichtman's prediction on whether Trump or Harris will win the 2024 presidential election based on his 13 keys for a successful election campaign.
The system uses 13 historical factors ("keys") to predict whether the election for president of the United States will be won by the nominee of the party holding the presidency. The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of ...
To call it a numbers game, eight of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Former President Donald Trump. “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” he said ...
The system, dubbed the "13 Keys to the White House" uses – you guessed it ... 2024 shows former President Donald Trump in Oaks, Pennsylvania, on October 14, 2024 and Vice President and ...
Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. [a] The Republican Party's ticket—Donald Trump, who was the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021, and JD Vance, the junior U.S. senator from Ohio—defeated the Democratic Party's ticket—Kamala Harris, the incumbent vice president, and Tim Walz, the 41st governor of Minnesota.
In addition to lecturing in the U.S. and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
The Primary Model for 2024 predicted a victory for Kamala Harris at 75 percent. Before the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential election, the Primary Model had also given Biden a 75 percent chance to defeat Trump [ 17 ] ; this was because Biden was the incumbent and had won the Democratic primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina ...