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The Phillips curve equation can be derived from the (short-run) Lucas aggregate supply function. The Lucas approach is very different from that of the traditional view. Instead of starting with empirical data, he started with a classical economic model following very simple economic principles. Start with the aggregate supply function:
This exhibits a Phillips curve relationship, as inflation is positively related with output (i.e. inflation is negatively related with unemployment). However, and this is the point, the existence of a short-run Phillips curve does not make the central bank capable of exploiting this relationship in a systematic way.
In 2002, Mankiw and Ricardo Reis proposed an alternative to the widely-used New Keynesian Phillips curve that is based on the slow diffusion of information among the population of price setters. Their sticky-information model displays three related properties that are more consistent with accepted views about the effects of monetary policy.
The New Keynesian Phillips curve was originally derived by Roberts in 1995, [48] and has since been used in most state-of-the-art New Keynesian DSGE models. [49] The new Keynesian Phillips curve says that this period's inflation depends on current output and the expectations of next period's inflation.
Joseph Eugene Stiglitz (/ ˈ s t ɪ ɡ l ɪ t s /; born February 9, 1943) is an American New Keynesian economist, [2] a public policy analyst, political activist, and a professor at Columbia University.
The book further popularized his "expectations-augmented Phillips curve" and introduced the concept of hysteresis with regard to unemployment (prolonged unemployment is partially irreversible as workers lose skill and become demoralized).
The rise in expected inflation strongly supports the view that Expected Augmented Phillips Curve (EAPC) can explain the early, mild stagflation. Although the weakening economy was putting some downward pressure on inflation overall inflation rose in accordance with EAPC, as expected inflation kept rising.
The dynamic AS curve slopes upward, reflecting the mechanisms of the Phillips curve: Other things equal, higher levels of activity reflect higher increases in wages and other marginal costs of production, causing higher inflation through the firms' price-setting mechanisms [3]: 263 [5]: 409 as they induce firms to raise their prices at a higher ...