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The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
Trackwise, the GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the GFDL, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NOGAPS, and GFS models. The version of the GUNA corrected for model biases is known as the CGUN. The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.
The main American global forecast model, the GFS underwent an upgrade several years ago that improved its reliability for hurricane forecasts. The GFS and GFS Ensembles have struggled in the last ...
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 21 named storms, and the sixth consecutive year in which there was above-average tropical cyclone activity [nb 1] [2] The season officially began on June 1, 2021, and ended on November 30, 2021.
Also known as spaghetti plots, these models show where a tropical system, such as a hurricane, may go. The more they are clustered together, the higher the confidence in the forecast.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of number of tropical cyclones, although many of them were weak and short-lived. With 21 named storms forming, it became the second season in a row and third overall in which the designated 21-name list of storm names was exhausted.
Multiple computer models that project possible storm paths suggest that invest 98 could develop into the next tropical storm of the season and head west into the Caribbean Sea.