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If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.
where is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, is the forecast, and is the number of different times for which the variable is forecast. Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a ...
When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.
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In bioinformatics, the root mean square deviation of atomic positions is the measure of the average distance between the atoms of superimposed proteins. In structure based drug design, the RMSD is a measure of the difference between a crystal conformation of the ligand conformation and a docking prediction.
The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
It is remarkable that the sum of squares of the residuals and the sample mean can be shown to be independent of each other, using, e.g. Basu's theorem.That fact, and the normal and chi-squared distributions given above form the basis of calculations involving the t-statistic:
In contrast to the mean absolute percentage error, SMAPE has both a lower bound and an upper bound. Indeed, the formula above provides a result between 0% and 200%. Indeed, the formula above provides a result between 0% and 200%.