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Example [ edit ] If both x {\displaystyle x} and y {\displaystyle y} vectors have cardinal (interval or rational) scale, then without knowing x {\displaystyle x} , the best predictor for an unknown y {\displaystyle y} would be y ¯ {\displaystyle {\bar {y}}} , the arithmetic mean of the y {\displaystyle y} -data.
Download as PDF; Printable version; In other projects ... For a value that is sampled with an unbiased normally distributed error, the above depicts the proportion ...
This interval is called the confidence interval, and the radius (half the interval) is called the margin of error, corresponding to a 95% confidence level. Generally, at a confidence level , a sample sized of a population having expected standard deviation has a margin of error
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
It is remarkable that the sum of squares of the residuals and the sample mean can be shown to be independent of each other, using, e.g. Basu's theorem.That fact, and the normal and chi-squared distributions given above form the basis of calculations involving the t-statistic:
The probability density function (PDF) for the Wilson score interval, plus PDF s at interval bounds. Tail areas are equal. Since the interval is derived by solving from the normal approximation to the binomial, the Wilson score interval ( , + ) has the property of being guaranteed to obtain the same result as the equivalent z-test or chi-squared test.
When either randomness or uncertainty modeled by probability theory is attributed to such errors, they are "errors" in the sense in which that term is used in statistics; see errors and residuals in statistics. Every time a measurement is repeated, slightly different results are obtained.
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