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In probability theory, conditional dependence is a relationship between two or more events that are dependent when a third event occurs. [1] [2] For example, if and are two events that individually increase the probability of a third event , and do not directly affect each other, then initially (when it has not been observed whether or not the ...
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes.Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent [1] if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds.
Events A and B can be assumed to be independent i.e. knowledge that A is late has minimal to no change on the probability that B will be late. However, if a third event is introduced, person A and person B live in the same neighborhood, the two events are now considered not conditionally independent.
Given two events A and B from the sigma-field of a probability space, with the unconditional probability of B being greater than zero (i.e., P(B) > 0), the conditional probability of A given B (()) is the probability of A occurring if B has or is assumed to have happened. [5]
More precisely, a real-valued continuous-time stochastic process with a probability space (,,) is separable if its index set has a dense countable subset and there is a set of probability zero, so () =, such that for every open set and every closed set = (,), the two events {} and {} differ from each other at most on a subset of .
This is the same as saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event {1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.
Graphs of probability P of not observing independent events each of probability p after n Bernoulli trials vs np for various p.Three examples are shown: Blue curve: Throwing a 6-sided die 6 times gives a 33.5% chance that 6 (or any other given number) never turns up; it can be observed that as n increases, the probability of a 1/n-chance event never appearing after n tries rapidly converges to ...
Philosophers including Robert Stalnaker argued that ideally, a conditional event algebra, or CEA, would support a probability function that meets three conditions: 1. The probability function satisfies the usual axioms. 2. For any two ordinary events A and B, if P(A) > 0, then P(A → B) = P(B | A) = P(A ∧ B) / P(A). 3.