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In economics and business decision-making, a sunk cost (also known as retrospective cost) is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Sunk costs are contrasted with prospective costs , which are future costs that may be avoided if action is taken. [ 3 ]
Economists and behavioral scientists use a related term, sunk-cost fallacy, to describe the justification of increased investment of money or effort in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment ("sunk cost") despite new evidence suggesting that the future cost of continuing the behavior outweighs the expected benefit.
One example is which option is more attractive between option A ($1,500 with a probability of 33%, $1,400 with a probability of 66%, and $0 with a probability of 1%) and option B (a guaranteed $920). Prospect theory and loss aversion suggests that most people would choose option B as they prefer the guaranteed $920 since there is a probability ...
The sunk-cost problem helps explain why it was so hard to end that war. It is worth considering this problem as we reflect on current wars. The sunk-cost fallacy applies in our thinking about the ...
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Escalation of commitment, irrational escalation, or sunk cost fallacy, where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. G. I. Joe fallacy, the tendency to think that knowing about cognitive bias is enough to overcome it. [66]
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