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  2. Prediction interval - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_interval

    Given a sample from a normal distribution, whose parameters are unknown, it is possible to give prediction intervals in the frequentist sense, i.e., an interval [a, b] based on statistics of the sample such that on repeated experiments, X n+1 falls in the interval the desired percentage of the time; one may call these "predictive confidence intervals".

  3. Posterior predictive distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posterior_predictive...

    In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.

  4. Regression analysis - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis

    The outer curves represent a prediction for a new measurement. [22] Regression models predict a value of the Y variable given known values of the X variables. Prediction within the range of values in the dataset used for model-fitting is known informally as interpolation. Prediction outside this range of the data is known as extrapolation ...

  5. Gaussian function - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_function

    The convolution of a function with a Gaussian is also known as a Weierstrass transform. A Gaussian function is the wave function of the ground state of the quantum harmonic oscillator. The molecular orbitals used in computational chemistry can be linear combinations of Gaussian functions called Gaussian orbitals (see also basis set (chemistry)).

  6. Bayesian inference - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

    Bayesian inference (/ ˈ b eɪ z i ə n / BAY-zee-ən or / ˈ b eɪ ʒ ən / BAY-zhən) [1] is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to calculate a probability of a hypothesis, given prior evidence, and update it as more information becomes available.

  7. Mean squared prediction error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_prediction_error

    When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.

  8. Confidence and prediction bands - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_prediction...

    Confidence bands can be constructed around estimates of the empirical distribution function.Simple theory allows the construction of point-wise confidence intervals, but it is also possible to construct a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative distribution function as a whole by inverting the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, or by using non-parametric likelihood methods.

  9. Local regression - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_regression

    Local regression or local polynomial regression, [1] also known as moving regression, [2] is a generalization of the moving average and polynomial regression. [3] Its most common methods, initially developed for scatterplot smoothing, are LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), both pronounced / ˈ l oʊ ɛ s / LOH-ess.

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