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Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
John Larry Kelly Jr. (December 26, 1923 – March 18, 1965), was an American scientist who worked at Bell Labs. From a "system he'd developed to analyze information transmitted over networks," from Claude Shannon's earlier work on information theory , he is best known for his 1956 work in creating the Kelly criterion formula.
In probability theory, Proebsting's paradox is an argument that appears to show that the Kelly criterion can lead to ruin. Although it can be resolved mathematically, it raises some interesting issues about the practical application of Kelly, especially in investing. It was named and first discussed by Edward O. Thorp in 2008. [1]
Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. Its discoverer was John Larry Kelly, Jr. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. This is important, since in the latter case ...
Kelly criterion is a dimensionless quantity, and, indeed, Kelly fraction / is the numerical fraction of wealth suggested for the investment. In some settings, the Kelly criterion can be used to convert the Sharpe ratio into a rate of return. The Kelly criterion gives the ideal size of the investment, which when adjusted by the period and ...
The Kelly criterion also describes such a utility function for a gambler seeking to maximize profit, which is used in gambling and information theory; Kelly's situation is identical to the foregoing, with the side information, or "private wire" taking the place of the experiment.
The standard notion of quality of an e-variable relative to a given alternative , used by most authors in the field, is a generalization of the Kelly criterion in economics and (since it does exhibit close relations to classical power) is sometimes called e-power; [9] the optimal e-variable in this sense is known as log-optimal or growth-rate ...
In Kelly's paper the thing he refers to as a "criterion" is the idea that at every bet the gambler should maximise the expected value of the logarithm of their capital. I think this is probably what is meant by "Kelly criterion" -- which means that the Kelly criterion is not in fact a formula at all.