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Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.1 billion in 2024. [ 2 ] Actual global human population growth amounts to around 70 million annually, or 0.85% per year.
Thomas Malthus was one of the first to note that populations grew with a geometric pattern while contemplating the fate of humankind. [3] One of the most basic and milestone models of population growth was the logistic model of population growth formulated by Pierre François Verhulst in 1838.
The 2022 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects report [23] represents a departure from the pattern of the previous ten years and expects that a slowing of the population growth rate will lead to a population peak of 10.4 billion in the 2080s, after which it would then begin to slowly fall.
The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1930 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973). [6] Adolphe Landry of France made similar observations on demographic patterns and population growth potential around 1934. [7]
The Demography of the World Population from 1950 to 2100. Data source: United Nations — World Population Prospects 2017. Demography (from Ancient Greek δῆμος (dêmos) 'people, society' and -γραφία (-graphía) 'writing, drawing, description') [1] is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the ...
P 0 = P(0) is the initial population size, r = the population growth rate, which Ronald Fisher called the Malthusian parameter of population growth in The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, [2] and Alfred J. Lotka called the intrinsic rate of increase, [3] [4] t = time. The model can also be written in the form of a differential equation:
The beginning of population dynamics is widely regarded as the work of Malthus, formulated as the Malthusian growth model. According to Malthus, assuming that the conditions (the environment) remain constant ( ceteris paribus ), a population will grow (or decline) exponentially .
The number shown is the average annual growth rate for the period. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship—except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of the country of origin ...