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Shortly after FiveThirtyEight relocated to The New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and state Governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling.
Since departing FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been publishing on his Substack blog Silver Bulletin [3] and serves as an advisor to Polymarket. [4] Silver was named one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time in 2009 after his election forecasting model correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 U.S. presidential ...
It is the first time since he launched the model that Harris jumped ahead of Trump, who polls showed was handily defeating Biden in key swing states. Silver left FiveThirtyEight last summer after ...
Election savant Nate Silver has put his marker down and revealed his “gut says” that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Nov. 5 election, while warning that polling ...
Those models showed that either candidate could easily win the election. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris’s odds at 50%. Split Ticket put her at 53%.
In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome. [6] On August 1, 2020, his model gave Joe Biden an 87 percent chance of winning the election, drawing criticism from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight who said: "I am not necessarily convinced.
In this scenario, the earliest all four teams could lock up playoff seeds would be Week 15, according to FiveThirtyEight's playoff prediction model. And by season's end, the Bills would win the ...
State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020 [3] Sabato Nov 2, 2020 [4] Politico Nov 2, 2020 [5] Real Clear Politics