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Rational expectations is an economic theory that seeks to infer the macroeconomic consequences of individuals' decisions based on all available knowledge. It assumes that individuals' actions are based on the best available economic theory and information.
Robert Hall was the first to derive the effects of rational expectations for consumption. His theory states that if Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis is correct, which in short says current income should be viewed as the sum of permanent income and transitory income and that consumption depends primarily on permanent income, and if consumers have rational expectations, then any ...
The policy-ineffectiveness proposition (PIP) is a new classical theory proposed in 1975 by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace based upon the theory of rational expectations, which posits that monetary policy cannot systematically manage the levels of output and employment in the economy.
In 1972 Lucas, [l] influenced by a 1961 agricultural economics paper by John Muth, [m] introduced rational expectations to macroeconomics. [110] Essentially, adaptive expectations modeled behavior as if it were backward-looking while rational expectations modeled economic agents (consumers, producers and investors) who were forward-looking. [111]
Widely regarded as the central figure in the development of the new classical approach to macroeconomics, [1] he received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1995 "for having developed and applied the hypothesis of rational expectations, and thereby having transformed macroeconomic analysis and deepened our understanding of ...
The first wave of New Keynesian economics developed in the late 1970s. The first model of Sticky information was developed by Stanley Fischer in his 1977 article, Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule. [6] He adopted a "staggered" or "overlapping" contract model.
The American economist Milton Friedman developed the permanent income hypothesis in his 1957 book A Theory of the Consumption Function. [7] In his book, Friedman posits a theory that explained how and why future expectations change consumption. [8] Friedman's 1957 book A Theory of the Consumption Function created the basis for consumption ...
Rational expectations were developed by John F. Muth and later translated into macroeconomic theory by Robert Lucas Jr., Thomas Sargent, Leonard Rapping, and others. [ 2 ] Depending on author and context, the term "Carnegie School" can refer to either both branches or only the bounded rationality branch, sometimes with the qualifier "Carnegie ...