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It is informed by turnout in recent elections, details on votes cast in advance and – after polls close – early returns. The estimate may fluctuate as election officials report additional results and AP learns more about how many voters have cast a ballot.
S indicates that a state was split between the two major parties and did not elect either party more than 60 percent of the time. A * sign indicates that a state elected that party at least 80 percent of the time. No * sign indicates that the state elected that party between 60 and 80 percent of the time.
2020 United States Senate elections ← 2018 November 3, 2020 January 5, 2021 (Georgia runoffs) 2022 → 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Majority party Minority party Leader Chuck Schumer Mitch McConnell Party Democratic Republican Leader since January 3, 2017 January 3, 2007 Leader's seat New York Kentucky Seats before 45 53 Seats after 48 ...
As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states", Silver estimated a "538 regression" using historical voting information along with demographic characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll (equivalent to the ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages.
(The Center Square) – Michigan’s race for U.S. Senate remains too close to call on election night. Republican Mike Johnson led Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin 50.2% to 47% at around 11:45 p.m ...
First round state senate district results. No candidate received a majority of the vote on November 3, so the top two finishers—incumbent Republican senator David Perdue (49.7%) and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff (47.9%)—advanced to a runoff election held on January 5, 2021. [184] [185]