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In probability theory, an outcome is a possible result of an experiment or trial. [1] Each possible outcome of a particular experiment is unique, and different outcomes are mutually exclusive (only one outcome will occur on each trial of the experiment). All of the possible outcomes of an experiment form the elements of a sample space. [2]
Rubin defines a causal effect: Intuitively, the causal effect of one treatment, E, over another, C, for a particular unit and an interval of time from to is the difference between what would have happened at time if the unit had been exposed to E initiated at and what would have happened at if the unit had been exposed to C initiated at : 'If an hour ago I had taken two aspirins instead of ...
According to the summation formula in the case of random variables with countably many outcomes, one has [] = = = + + + + = + + + +. It is natural to say that the expected value equals +∞ . There is a rigorous mathematical theory underlying such ideas, which is often taken as part of the definition of the Lebesgue integral. [ 19 ]
The ATE measures the difference in mean (average) outcomes between units assigned to the treatment and units assigned to the control. In a randomized trial (i.e., an experimental study), the average treatment effect can be estimated from a sample using a comparison in mean outcomes for treated and untreated units.
In probability theory, the law (or formula) of total probability is a fundamental rule relating marginal probabilities to conditional probabilities. It expresses the total probability of an outcome which can be realized via several distinct events , hence the name.
The formula can be understood as follows: ... M is the most probable outcome (that is, the most likely, although this can still be unlikely overall) ...
In this case, the above formula applies, such as calculating the probability of a particular sum of the two rolls in an outcome. The probability of the event that the sum D 1 + D 2 {\displaystyle D_{1}+D_{2}} is five is 4 36 {\displaystyle {\frac {4}{36}}} , since four of the thirty-six equally likely pairs of outcomes sum to five.
A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).