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The Bradley effect, less commonly known as the Wilder effect, [1] [2] is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white and a non-white candidate run against each other.
“As far as a malicious bias influencing the outcome of a poll, I don’t see much incentive for that for the pollsters. If you look at a lot of the national polls, most of them are pretty close.
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
Silver, 46, explained that surveys underestimated Trump’s performance in each of the last two elections because of “nonresponse bias” toward the 78-year-old’s supporters.
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed.
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Biden would win the national popular vote by 4.4 ...
The survey released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday found Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Arizona, 49 percent to 44 percent; by 2 points in Georgia, 48 percent to 46 ...
Media Bias/Fact Check (MBFC) is an American website founded in 2015 by Dave M. Van Zandt. [1] It considers four main categories and multiple subcategories in assessing the "political bias" and "factual reporting" of media outlets, [ 2 ] [ 3 ] relying on a self-described "combination of objective measures and subjective analysis".