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When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
Voters in each state decide how their state's electors will vote. Most states are winner-take-all: whoever wins in California earns all 55 of its electoral college votes.
We estimate the probability of a win in each Senate race using publicly available polls in the HuffPost Pollster database. We use Pollster’s Bayesian Kalman filter model to simulate 100,000 populations whose voting intentions correspond to the poll results. (We sample 5,000 of those simulations in our calculations, for speed.)
See all states » Senate Forecast. Percent of simulations where each party gains control of Senate
Senate. Chance each party controls Senate. Dem 50/50 Split GOP; 71%: 22%: 7%: See full calculations »
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
Voters in each state decide how their state's electors will vote. Most states are winner-take-all: whoever wins in California earns all 55 of its electoral college votes.
Presidential Race: Election 2016 - elections.huffingtonpost.com