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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high.
Hubris (/ ˈ h juː b r ɪ s /; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage'), or less frequently hybris (/ ˈ h aɪ b r ɪ s /), [1] describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride [2] or dangerous overconfidence and complacency, [3] often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogance. [4]
The myth that Columbus proved the Earth was round was propagated by authors like Washington Irving in A History of the Life and Voyages of Christopher Columbus. [31] Columbus was not the first European to visit the Americas: [35] Leif Erikson, and possibly other Vikings before him, explored Vinland, an area of coastal North America.
Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably think it doesn't affect you. That's the tricky thing with overconfidence: The people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely ...
Hindsight bias may lead to overconfidence and malpractice in regards to physicians. Hindsight bias and overconfidence is often attributed to the number of years of experience the physician has. After a procedure, physicians may have a "knew it the whole time" attitude, when in reality they may not have known it.
On the overconfidence effect, Martin Hilbert argues that confidence bias can be explained by a noisy conversion of objective evidence into subjective estimates, where noise is defined as the mixing of memories during the observing and remembering process. [44]
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Victory disease occurs in military history when complacency or arrogance, brought on by a victory or a series of victories, makes an engagement end disastrously for a commander and his forces. [1] A commander may disdain the enemy, and believe his own invincibility, leading his troops to disaster.