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The number of forecasting years is therefore to be limited by the "meaningfulness" of the individual yearly cash flows ahead. Addressing this, there are three typical methods of determining the forecast period. Based on company positioning: The forecast period corresponds to the years where an excess return is achievable.
MedICT has chosen the perpetuity growth model to calculate the value of cash flows beyond the forecast period. They estimate that they will grow at about 6% for the rest of these years (this is extremely prudent given that they grew by 78% in year 5), and they assume a forward discount rate of 15% for beyond year 5. The terminal value is hence:
If N is the 5th and final year in this period, then the Terminal Value is divided by (1 + k) 5 (or WACC). The Present Value of the Terminal Value is then added to the PV of the free cash flows in the projection period to arrive at an implied enterprise value .
If the cash flow stream is assumed to continue indefinitely, the finite forecast is usually combined with the assumption of constant cash flow growth beyond the discrete projection period. The total value of such cash flow stream is the sum of the finite discounted cash flow forecast and the Terminal value (finance).
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business, economics and investing term representing the mean annualized growth rate for compounding values over a given time period. [1] [2] CAGR smoothes the effect of volatility of periodic values that can render arithmetic means less meaningful. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates of ...
There have also been proposed methods for adjusting the smoothing constants used in forecasting methods based on some measure of prior performance of the forecasting model. One such approach is suggested by Trigg and Leach (1967), which requires the calculation of the tracking signal.
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A financial forecast is an estimate of future financial outcomes for a company or project, usually applied in budgeting, capital budgeting and / or valuation. Depending on context, the term may also refer to listed company (quarterly) earnings guidance .