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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [ citation needed ] [ dubious – discuss ] , who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting "the best of it" and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the ...
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA).
Super Bowl Squares are the second most popular office sports betting tradition in the United States (No. 1: March Madness brackets), maybe because the outcome is based entirely on luck. Here's how ...
In most cases, the favorite will have negative moneyline odds (less payoff for a safer bet) and the underdog will have positive moneyline odds (more payoff for a risky bet). However, if the teams are evenly matched, both teams can have a negative line at the same time (e.g. −110 −110 or −105 −115), due to house take.
The best way to analyze if a parlay is profitable in the long term is by calculating the expected value. The formula for expected value is: [] = + + …. Since the probability of all possible events will add up to 1 this can also be looked at as the weighted average of the event. The table below represents odds. Column 1 = number of individual ...
The expected amount won is (1 × 0.978744) = 0.978744. The expected amount lost is (63 × 0.021256)= 1.339118. Thus, the total expected value for each application of the betting system is (0.978744 − 1.339118) = −0.360374 . In a unique circumstance, this strategy can make sense.
Fractional odds are written a − b (a/b or a to b), meaning a winning bettor will receive their money back plus a units for every b units they bet. Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet. For example, a bet of £40 at 6 − 4 (fractional odds) will pay out £40 + £60 = £100.